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wildpixel Listen here or on the go via Apple Podcasts and Spotify Courage & Conviction Investing details why it pays off to stay consistent in his small cap strategy and portfolio approach (1:55). Why he never doubted Carvana and why he's been buying Zeta (7:10). CuriosityStream's ridiculous dividend and getting into Cineverse (16:15). Really excited about BuzzFeed (30:10). Mesa, Spirit, United and the airlines industry (38:40). Recorded on November 19. Subscribe to Second Wind Capital Transcript Rena Sherbill: Welcome back to the show, Courage & Conviction Investing. Always great to talk to you, always great to have you on the episode. So thanks for doing this. Courage & Conviction Investing: Hi, Rena, it's great to be with you as well. It's mid-November here in Boston and we've had California weather since October. So exceptionally sunny, warm, dry. So I'm feeling upbeat. I'm feeling SoCal happy today. So it's good to connect with you. RS : It's funny that you say that because I'm in SoCal, and I was looking at the ocean today and watching the dolphins, and you're talking about sunny weather. And a couple of days ago, I was looking at the water, and I was listening to one of our previous episodes and you were setting the stage of September in New England. So happy to kind of keep the conversation going with the seasonality because that's a lot of what life is about. It's a lot of what investing is about and making sure that we're staying sane and profitable along the way in the different seasons as it looks like winter, as the sun comes out, what are we supposed to be doing. We've been talking a lot on this podcast recently about portfolios and how to approach investing. We've had some dividend investors on, we've had some people focusing on stocks, we've had some people focusing on various strategies. And one of the points, I think, that we're trying to put across is with all this volatility, confusion in the markets for many investors or how to understand the macro picture or how to understand stocks narratives, something that you would put forth and that you've articulated in the past is not paying attention to the macro, focusing on your strategy, focusing on what's going to gain you the most alpha. Now that we've talked a few times , we've seen some of those truisms or strategies put into reality. I love it if you started this conversation sharing maybe how you're thinking about your portfolio these days and if you want to get into some specific stocks to start with that you've been focused on or that you'd care to bring back up in conversation, happy to start there. C&CI : Yeah, a lot's happened since we spoke. As we talked about, I wrote a Peter Lynch article referencing Peter Lynch's famous phrase, “If you spend 13 minutes a year on macro, you've wasted 10 minutes.” And I remember reading Peter Lynch back in high school. So I'm 44, high school, I graduated high school in ‘99. And I was reading Peter Lynch in the 90s. So it's kind of come full circle. But I've learned a long time ago from some really smart people that it's just not a good bet to bet against America. It's not a good bet to not to be optimistic on America. It's the most dynamic entrepreneurial place with incredible incentives. So invariably, you get these very, very successful, smart, hard-charging, ambitious people from all over the world because the streets are literally paved in gold. And so if you look back at any period of time, we've climbed however many walls of worry. Sir Warren Buffett has talked about this. If you've read his work, it's all free and readily available. It just takes some time and some ability to synthesize and some patience and to turn off the noise. He talked about in the ‘80s about all the stock whispers on Wall Street trying to get rich, selling new products. And his strategy has evolved with Charlie, the passing of Charlie. Charlie got him into growth at a reasonable price and so they were a dynamic duo. But there's no question in my mind, Buffett's the greatest of all time. I don't think it's close. It's akin to Tom Brady as the best quarterback of all time. And it's really just not getting lost in the noise. There's constantly this thing to fret about, that to fret about, and the debt, wars, geopolitical, inflation, all these doom and gloom stories about the consumer. And yeah, I'm not suggesting there aren't challenges, setbacks and what have you. But again, it just has never been a good bet to bet against America. That's why it's the most dynamic pool of capital. That's why very wealthy endowments from all over the world want to invest here because the best companies are here. And so, I mean, the S&P (SPY) is up, I don't know, 25%-ish this year. It was – had a great year last year. I mean, people have been calling the top and the S&P since 3,500, 4,000, 4,200. And I just don't see how there's any alpha to be gained doing that. Yeah, you'll get a 2021 or it’s Q4 2021 to 2022, you'll have a really bad year. Interest rates climb dramatically, tech stocks got smashed, market got beat up, companies went bankrupt, but that's the creative destruction of capitalism and that's just how the system works. The forest burns in the Serengeti, the plains, and then that replenishes the soil and then the cycle begins again. So my strategy hasn't changed. Markets have done remarkably well, but I'm literally just sticking to my playbook, small cap values, special situations, speak to management team, bottoms-up, have a good thesis, do the work, have the conviction, take the draw downs, very concentrated, but at the same time, maybe spread out, I don't know, 8, 10 to 10 bets, and then I do a lot of little small things, tinkering on the side like Taleb talked about in Black Swan. A lot of innovation has been through tinkering. That's part of my process. But what I like about my strategy too is, it's so uncorrelated with markets because it's a value-based strategy and value has been out of favor for so long. But there's just – there are so many opportunities. If you do the work, you turn over all these different rocks and be willing to traverse places no one else will. And so it's been another very, very good year so far. RS : Let's get into why it's been such a good year and let's start with the highlights if you would. Carvana ( NYSE: CVNA ), a stock that you've talked about that was out of favor, that you felt like the marketplace didn't understand was mispricing, that has certainly come to fruition. If you want to talk about Carvana a bit and talk about some of the other highlights of your portfolio. C&CI : So Carvana, I did a ton of work in Carvana in the summer, June and July. I wrote a four-part free site series on Carvana. The stock was between 22 and 30. And the narrative then was they were going to 0, they couldn't handle the debt, the Garcia's were frauds, it's just the business model didn't work, the gross margin to all weren't high enough, yada yada yada. And I love to play contrarian, but it's an art and it's so difficult. Peter Thiel, who I don't really like politically, but he's definitely a brilliant guy. And he's been quoted as saying “One of the most difficult things in the world is to be contrarian to be right.” So that suits my personality. I love that art and that challenge of forging into places no one else would go with this there's incredible group think, where there's a ton of short interest and where the narrative, the perception becomes the reality. In the case of Carvana, it was a stock where if you did a lot of work on it, he said the consumer absolutely loves the process. My parents sold the car with them, was incredibly easy process. The dealership model people have hated, they feel like they get ripped off on the purchase. It's just this terrible experience, especially used cars. And so the Garcias had the vision, the foresight to say, this is a massive addressable market. It's never been done before. We're going to scale this business. And what people miss was when they bought ADESA, the auction business, I thought that was absolutely brilliant because it helped them in terms of positioning, saving them money in terms of the transportation of the cars. If the site goes the wrong way, they could blow out inventory, lose some money, stick and move, kind of reevaluate. And they did a brilliant exchange offer that the Garcias pulled off the bondholders. And so that pushed the gun against their head off because the platform was literally burning. That gave them time. And then as the market got really tricky, they took tremendous market share and it's just played out really, really well. Now, it's probably overvalued here. It's hard to value it. But the market's kind of looking at this like as Amazon ( AMZN ), how it's winner take all. And when you have that type of scale, you have that type of brand, you have those type of gross margins. If you flow that through sort of a fixed cost, I mean, it’s variable and fixed a base that they're looking at the out year earning power. And so that's why the stock is up 10x. That's in a nutshell what happened there. But just recently, speaking of run into burning buildings, I've been buying the heck out of Zeta ( ZETA ). Last month, I've never owned the stock since last Monday. They had fantastic numbers, beat, raise, and they said, “We feel comfortable where 2025 is.” They talked about how this consensus estimates, they talked about how their RFP business quote is up 60%. The CEO is very intelligent, David Steinberg. He gave a great conference call in excruciating detail. The stock was up on the knee jerk from like 37 to 46 and after hours and then I saw a reverse. And so that got me interested at the stock was like 35. I started buying some. Next day, it's 28. I'm like, what the hell is going on here? These numbers were unbelievable, beat and raise. Steinberg owns a ton of stock. He founded the company, I believe, in 2007. AI marketing. It’s just – everything made sense. They have all these great customers. The return on investment for the customers is fantastic. They have 40% of the Fortune 100. Well, lo and behold, I was on a conference call last Tuesday with the C-Suite of BuzzFeed ( BZFD ), one of my big holdings with Jonah, Matt, and Amita. Get out of that call was fantastic. And Zeta, which I put a pretty decent size position on, the stock is like 23. I'm like, “What the hell just happened?” So there was a short report by this outfit called Culper. I have no idea who the hell they are. And so that's the next thing I know. The stock is like $20 and now I have a decision to make because I have a big – I had a big position on, it's like, “Do I take a big loss?” I owned it at like, I don't know, upper 20s at that point, or am I going to go big here? And I said, “I'm going to go big.” And so I bought a bunch at 20, 17, 16. And this was like literally, there was a gun to my head because this was before Steinberg came out with this – refuting the story before all that's happened. Well, lo and behold, Jeff Feinberg, who was like the head trader for Soros, bought a 5% position, he filed it this morning. Feinberg is one of the smartest guys out there. He was in Bitcoin really early. I know people who work with him, so this guy is absolutely brilliant. And lo and behold, he puts up $200 million or whatever. I don't know what he bought it at, but he bought 5% of the company. Steinberg has been on the media circuit. He's done a great job explaining how the accusations are complete BS. They got the auditor wrong. They don't understand the business. And so anyway, I own it in size, like the 20s, 23-ish. But that's the type of trouble that I like to get myself into. But I’m willing to charge into burning buildings when I feel like I'm right, when I feel like it's contrarian and when I feel like when I synthesize a situation, I'm getting paid to take risks . So that's a more relevant story to a Carvana, but I think there are some parallels to it where sentiment drives like ridiculous movements, overshoots, undershoots in both directions. RS : What would you say about the buyback that they announced recently over at Zeta? C&CI : Well, I mean, if you listen to some of his interviews, there was a guy on CNBC, I forget his name, that had a great interview, then he had the Tom, I believe, Tom Lee, who's had an incredible record in tech and been bullish and been right. He's bullish in the S&P, first to call $6,000 . The S&P has been long, I think Bitcoin since $4,000, long Apple ( AAPL ) for decades. So two really, really good interviews. But I think they're saying, “Listen, this stock should be 40 on the screens based on our fundamentals, how strong the business is, how the business is inflecting, the growth of EBITDA, free cash flow, how they're ramping up their sales force, how the product expansion, how Zeta Live had like a thousand CTOs in the audience, both live and virtually. I mean, what is the probability that a PhD from MIT, Stanford, Caltech, some of the best places in the world, that it's so difficult to become a CTO for a Fortune 100 company, that you're fooling all these people? I think it's astronomically low probability. And Steinberg came out in the board, so they're going to be in the market buying the stock. And so I just think it's kind of a unique contrarian setup. But again, these are the type of situations, these special situations where you like to get – I like to get into trouble but it's an art. And the only way to get better at this is to do that type of stuff. But again, it's very selectively because you only have nine lives as a cat and you better use them wisely. So anyway, that's that story. RS : Another stock I wanted to ask you about and speaking to the point that we've had dividend investors and dividend strategists on, one of the stocks Edward Schneider was on a few days ago talking about CuriosityStream ( CURI ). That's a stock you've written about on the free site. I don't know if it's one that you get deeply into and Second Wind Capital, in your investing group. Care to share your thoughts around CuriosityStream and what your bullishness is? C&CI : Yeah. So basically, I follow 300 companies and I'm a militant about – every morning, I'm up at, I don't know, 4:30 to 5:30 and I literally check Seeking Alpha's – I have like all these different portfolios set up, tracking portfolios and I religiously check the press releases every 15 minutes, 6 o'clock, 6:15, 6:30, 7:15, I'm sorry, 6:45, 7, all the way to 9 o'clock. And this was after hours. I forget when it was. I was just doing my normal routine. I don't ever want to miss anything. And I read, I said, CuriosityStream is instituting a dividend. The stock was $0.60, okay? I said, “Oh my God.” And I alerted my group and we bought the hell out of this thing between $0.69 and $0.75. So at that time, that was a ridiculous dividend. They had tons of cash. The cash burn was getting much lessening, approaching positive EBITDA with a ton of cash on the balance sheet to fund the dividend and they have a good library of content. So it's just like crazy, stupid, mispriced, first-movers advantage. Now in fairness, I didn't play it well because I was sized up at like $0.75. I want to say I sold at $1.25. I don't know why. That was a mistake in retrospect because it hit 3, but it was a high probability bet at $0.75. I haven't followed it closely, but something somewhat similar and related, which I've written on this free site is called Cineverse ( CNVS ). In addition to working with SA and running family money, I work with three advisers. I have a family office in Greenwich, then New York and there's another family office. And so I started talking about Cineverse privately to my group on October 18th, where I broke it, the stock was 2.10 and I teed up the situation. We own about 4% of the business across all accounts, excluding my Seeking Alpha members. So I have no idea how many shares they own. And this is one of the most incredible setups in micro caps. What basically happened is they own the rights to Terrifier 3, which did $54 million at the box office domestically. The way the math works just kind of synthesizing what you can find on Google and reading Reddit posts and whatnot is when you sell a movie at the box office, you get 45% unless you're a big Hollywood studio of the money of the box, of the gate, so to speak. And the way the math, I believe, worked here was they had a loan for like $3.7 million with interest. And then they had marketing expenses to market this. And so the first $12.5 million at the box office, they get 45%. They get, I believe, get 100% of that, where they can pay back their debtholders and they can get reimbursed on the expenses. And then from $12.5 million to $54 million, you multiply that by about 20% or 19%. So for a company, and we were buying at like a $33 million market cap, they had like maybe $5 million of debt. Now granted back on October 15th, they hadn't done $54 million in at the box office. But that to me, it looked like a pretty good bet, given how strong they came out of the gate. And so this is a company that's going to get a $14 million cash windfall, okay, with a $33 million market cap. And then when I read the conference calls and I synthesized it, I said, “All right, they took $9 million SG&A out of cost past year. They own Match Point, which is an incredible technology. So they have the ability because they own $40 million library of film, of content. Because they run 30 different fast channels, including Bob Ross channel, Dog Whisperer and whatnot. So they spent tens of tens of millions of dollars to build this technology. It's unmatched, it's unrivaled. And so with AI, when these AI engines want to ingest this data, the video, it doesn't work for Hollywood studios and that was a great explanation of that on the conference call. Corsair is a $0.5 billion fund. They took a 5% stake. Jay was on the conference call and they explained it. So the other thing is if you think about the ecosystem, they own all these FAST channels, so there's 80 million views I believe, and they have cineSearch, which they're working on Google ( GOOG ), which should be very valuable. They own Bloody and Disgusting, which is I believe one of the top 20 podcasts in America. They got a great podcast business and they also own a streaming business called Screambox. So they should dominate the horror genre and they can replicate this playbook what they did with Terrifier 3. They already signed another deal for next Christmas. So it's an incredibly exciting business. No one knows about it. I put it on the free site with a lag. No one's ever heard of the company, everyone's looking backwards and I'm like, “This is a layup, okay?” The business is literally inflecting. This thing could be a $10 stock. How the hell will we be able to buy, what do we buy, 600,000 shares of this thing, between 175 and 230 or 240, whatever the heck we paid for it. And so it'll be very interesting to watch what happens, but they just reported last week, they had a good Q2, their fiscal year ends starts April 1st. So the Q3, which is December 31, 2024, they're going to blow the doors off of numbers. And the analysts, the two analysts that cover it, Benchmark and Alliance, they'll take their numbers up. That's, I think, why it's one of the stocks having a nice move today. But what's so lucrative about this stuff? When you get these things right that no one knows about, no one's thinking about, is there's only 15.7 million shares outstanding and management owns a ton of stock. Corsair owns 5.5% of the company. So there's not a lot of float available. So that first-mover advantage is incredibly valuable. But if the stock moves up a point, that's 50% on your original basis, thereabouts, right? And it's only a $15.7 million change in market cap. Because of the tremendous free cash flow, they're going to pay off all their debt, they're going to license Terrifier 3, I believe, to Amazon, because Terrifier 2 is on Amazon 2. And then they'll have ancillary revenue through that share. They have first right of refusal Terrifier 4, and they could put it on ScreenBox, which is $4.99 a month. And then they can sell DVDs to Walmart ( WMT ). So bundle Terrifier 2 and Terrifier 3. Those are the gems. I try to find one or two of those a year. I've been better at finding. And this idea came from the guy I work with in Greenwich who's had a family office for 20 years. His fund got up to $180 million and he's got a big Wall Street network. He said, “Hey, take a look at this thing. I think you may like it.” And then I dropped everything. I spent like eight hours working on it that day and I said, “Oh my God, this is amazing.” Those are fun. Those are special. And again, if you get two of these a year, and I've been good about finding two, three, four sometimes, that's how the serious, serious money gets made. The only issue is the liquidity has stepped up a bunch now, but it's still a small company. So it's not anything any big players could size. But for retail investors, like, I'm sure I have members that bought 5,000 shares, or maybe 10,000 shares. It's a good one, right? You buy it at $2, $2.25, $2.40, and I think it was pushing $3.90 today, and I think it'd go a lot higher. But again, it's going to be very volatile, but that's the magic. That's what I'm trying to find. That's what I'm trying to get back to. And it's really just a function of bandwidth. Like how do you spend your time? Bandwidth is incredibly valuable. You never know when you're going to see a great idea. But if you're not in the trenches every day, learning, reading, synthesizing, getting better, learning from mistakes, you're going to miss these things. Because there's no bell that rings and says, “Oh, there's a great opportunity like you have to go and get them. You have to go find them. You have to be on a quest.” It's an adventure. You're going to have setbacks, but you have to stick to that North Star. And that's what we're trying to do. RS : Keep going Frodo, keep going. When you get a recommendation on a stock, what's the first thing you look at or is it stock dependent? C&CI : It's bespoke. I don't do any quantitative screens ever. It's an organic thing. I'm looking for inflection points. So value can take shape in two ways. It can be growth at a reasonable price or it can be ridiculously cheap and mispriced. For instance, Regis ( RGS ), which owns the franchise rights super cuts, I had covered it. It had done well for a while then it kind of struggled. I was actually out of the stock because I didn't think they could handle the debt. They had $180 million in debt, $25 million EBITDA, cash interest was 20%. I thought they were going to file bankruptcy. I think it was June 25th, I woke up doing my work, doing my work, 6:30. I see this 8-K that Regis refinanced its debt. I was like, what? I read the 8-K, Bank of America forgave like $80 million in principal. Now, some of that was PIK interest and they had been paying them for a while, a lot of cash interest, but they literally walked away from the debt and they got TCW, a private equity fund, to basically take the debt over at $90 million and then they TCW out of their fees. So overnight on a company that had a market cap of like $20 million, they got $80 million of debt forgiven. So I said, “Oh my God, I read the 8-K like five times. I was like, what the hell – what am I missing? And we bought the hell out of it between 5 and 6.25, 6.50. I sent out multiple alerts to my group. We loaded up on the thing. The thing opened at like 14 and hit like 24 that day. In fairness, I sold it at 12, because I doubled my money and I had a huge position and ended up hitting 35 because I don't like the business. And I had some people make 3x, 4x, 5x, which is great, all good. But it's that first-mover advantage of playing in companies and in situations and having that situational awareness. So you can synthesize news much faster than any algo because you know the business, you've read the conference calls, you know the drivers of how these businesses move. Again, you don't get these that often, but when you do, you print money, right? If you get two or three of these a year, it's just stupid the type of returns you put up. I had a slump that I broke out of in a massive way recently, but I was literally in a slump for like a couple months, just making a little bit of money, but grinding, nothing happened, losing on this, making on this, trying to keep my head above water, fighting through it, wasn't seeing the baseball, just was, I was like Aaron Judge in the World Series hitting like 120 or whatever he hit or two. But all of a sudden, you stick to your process right and then all of a sudden you start to see the baseball again and you start knocking it over the fence and then you see another ball and the ball looks like a watermelon, right? It looks like it's in slow motion, a watermelon, and you knock another one over the fence. And you feel so good after that because these slumps are nasty, and they drain on you and they wear on you, but it's all par for the course. It's all part of the process because there's nothing linear, right? Just two steps forward, one step back. And that's just kind of how it is. But again, it's all slugging percentage. I think I mentioned that in the last call that we had. And so if you can hit two, three big hits a year, you are going to destroy the indices, right? That's just how the math works. And you can strike out and you can miss stuff and you can have management teams lie to you and you can get fooled. But as long as you hit a couple of long balls, net-net, the math just works out where you're going to compound at very good rates. And so that's what this year's been. It's been another great year. And I got a couple of really exciting things that I'm waiting on that could play out, especially BuzzFeed between now and year-end. I've been in BuzzFeed since February of 2024 and I was buying the stock at like a $1.5 in the Connecticut sleeve, family sleeve, sleeves and I literally saw a thesis that no one else saw they thought I was crazy, they were going to default and I was like “No, no that's absolute nonsense. This business is inflecting, they own great businesses with BuzzFeed, with HuffPost, you have the election coming. I was on the phone with Jonah and Matt multiple times after earnings calls. My sense is Jonah wants to win. Jonah's very intelligent. Matt's a great CFO. And I said, “No, I'm not buying into that narrative”. They also own Hot Ones, which is an incredible show with Sean Evans. For instance, before the Wolverine Deadpool movie, Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman came on to Hot Ones and they went through the Hot Ones of Death Gauntlet and they had 30 million views on YouTube. You have A list stars like Ariana Grande wanting to go on Hot Ones. A celebrity has a new book, they have a new movie, they have a new podcast. They want to go on Hot Ones. They love Sean Evans, right?. And so I'm like, “Okay, yeah, you got $120 million of debt, you got $45 million of cash.” But then I said, “Well, wait a second, they're going to crush it, Q4 with HuffPost, with the election spend, you're going to get higher CPMs on the programmatic side. They're crushing it on the affiliate business with Amazon. We saw that in Q3. They just had an incredible Q3 if you model it. And I said, there's no way in God's green earth, Jonah is going to default because his sister is married to Jordan Peele, who's one of the biggest directors in Hollywood. He probably knows Reed on a first-name basis because there's talks that Netflix ( NFLX ) wants to do something with these guys. So I'm like, there's 28 ways to Sunday I'm going to win. Now it hasn't been decided yet because the debt is puttable December 3rd and it remains to be seen if they can navigate it. But I literally bought this thing at 1.5, added it. So I had my basis was like upper ones. Vivek Ramaswamy bought an 8% stake, stock spikes to 4.5%, goes to 2% in my face. You idiot, Courage & Conviction, why didn't you sell it? It was at 4.5%. Because I said, “Well, I did sell some, a third of it or maybe 40%. But then I reloaded all in the 2. I said, “I'm betting on my thesis.” I think it's a brilliant thesis. I don't care about the stock prices. I don't care if it's $2. The tail doesn't wag the dog. And so we'll see. I'm hoping it happens before Thanksgiving. They may take this thing to the wire, but I've learned the hard way and you play in distressed debt, distressed equity. If the business is inflecting, the terms of leverage are less than 4x, especially if it's less than 3x, on modeling, they're going to do monster Q3, Q4 free cashflow. Let's conservatively say EBITDA is $25 million, $30 million. Net debt, they just reported Q3, $54 million in cash, $120. It's not that levered, plus you could sell Hot Ones. There's a possibility of Netflix. It was just one of those sweet setups, and we'll see, I think it's like mid-3s today, it's super volatile, a lot of hot money day traders, but I'm playing this thing out, and we talked about it, right? I've been in it since, again, 1.5 and averaging up. And I think if I'm right, it's going to be 5-plus. The trifecta would be blow out Q4, so that'd be $30 million EBITDA. So $25 million free cash because they have to pay the interest payment on the debt, 8.5% convert. Then get a refi, then get Netflix, a Netflix Live Miniseries with Evans. Now that would be perfect. We don't live in a perfect world. I'm not betting on that. That would be the best-case scenario. A good scenario would be they do at least $25 million EBITDA, they get a debt extension, they get some type of refi and maybe they don't get Netflix. They've been trying to sell Hot Ones, but I know they want to get the right price. So again, there's just multiple ways to win. But when the stock, you buy a stock at $1.5 goes to 4.5, you're up pretty big, then it goes back to $2 in your face. But there's only 37.5 million shares outstanding. So again, a $1 move, $2 move in the stock price is nothing in market cap. And then you have the optionality of becoming more of an AI company. They've shown signs with Shrek and Minions and Vote Kamala, AI tools. And so, I don't know, that's the stuff that works, that I'm looking for. And again, I mean, some of the names we talked about before , they've struck out, like I got smoked on Red Robin ( RRGB ), completely smoked. Owned it at 11. Stock went to 15, didn't sell it. And I just felt like management completely lied to me, they haven't delivered. And I was sold half at 8, then the rest in the 4s. I got smoked on that thing.– RS : Is that part of the game? Is it speaking to the Red Robin affair and management lying to you and not always being able to suss that out? Is that just... C&CI : The mistake I made on Red Robin is this. RS : Yeah. C&CI : They have their first quarter 16 weeks versus the traditional 13, 13. And Q1 of ‘23 was amazing. They crushed it. But what happened was it was a unique period of time where there was benign competition. You had record food inflation, but it was in the second derivative decline and labor was very tight. So in a highly competitive dog-eat-dog market share hunt business, there was a placid, ceasefire olive branch, not in the collusion type of way because this is so fragmented, where the industry was so battered by this inflation, you could pass through the food inflation and some of the labor inflation. And then given the amount of sales this thing had, they put up a monster cute quarter. And so then you throw that in with a fancy narrative that management have, we talked to them multiple times. And I just feel like they completely lied to my face, just completely lied to me and I wasn't smart enough. I did see signs, like I saw the like Applebee's $9.99, burger deal, Bacon Burger. I saw the fast food wars kind of ramping up and I just kind of ignored it because I said the valuation is so cheap that the – it's looking backwards. And they've absolutely whiffed and it hurts because you do all this work, you believe in it, you believe in a team and they completely fail. Now there are some activists involved now I have no idea what they're going to do to turn around this business. I haven't a clue. I took my medicine and I kind of move on. So, it is par for the course. You are going to swing and miss. You're going to think you have a good thesis and you're going to miss something. There's going to be an oversight. But again, if you're playing 8 to 12 names, okay and again better risk management, we should have sold all of it at 8. So it wouldn't even have been that big a deal. You were in at 11, goes to 15, okay, great, you give back a big gain. You're out at 8, you lose 3 points, no big deal. But the second tranche selling it in the 4s, that hurt, and that was just an unforced error, but again, par for the course. So you learn from it, you try to get better and it's just part of the game, but in small caps, it's literally pretty much 90% management. You can have a great concept, great inflection point, but if management cannot execute, then usually nothing good happens. RS : Something that you did seem to see was Spirit Airlines ( OTC:SAVEQ ), which has been in the news for bankruptcy and some really heavy bad news over there. Anything to point out there in terms of what you saw or what you were able to see or how investors should be thinking about that part of the market? C&CI : So what happened was, I did a ton of work on Mesa ( MESA ), which I still own. I bought Mesa originally like, I don't know, a while ago at like, I don't know, 1.50. It hit like 3.5. I think I got sold a little bit and then I forget. I might get stopped out for like, I don't know, maybe at even. But I did a ton of work on Mesa and then I got back on the horse and I figured I listened to all the United because United is their big sponsor. So Mesa gets paid a fee to fly regional traffic to connect the United's hub-and-spoke business. And United ( UAL ) has the best CEO in the business and the best team and they had the foresight to make massive investment five years ago when no one else is making that investment. Forget about that. They're crushing it internationally. But they basically drank Spirit Airlines and the low-cost carriers milkshake. And so when I synthesize all those calls, because United is such a big backer and been an incredible partner for Mesa Air. I basically synthesized and worked out because the CEO and the upper management explained what they're basically doing in a competitive landscape to the spirits of the world. And so they were flying bigger jets and it's a little bit complicated. But I saw that and I said, “All right, there's so much debt, the pilots are so expensive, all the costs were going up, jet fuel was expensive, and I saw the debt. And once the JetBlue ( JBLU ) deal didn't work because of antitrust, I said, “If you looked at the balance sheet, it looked very, very unlikely that these guys weren't going to file. And Dave Portnoy of Davey Day Trader, he's a brilliant entrepreneurial guy. but he knows nothing about stocks, okay, literally nothing. And he's telling all his followers, his millions and millions of followers to buy the stock. I'm like looking at this balance sheet, I was like, what the hell is this guy talking about? And so unfortunately they filed this morning. And it wasn't that difficult to see if you just looked at the trajectory, if you did any work on the industry and you looked at the balance sheet. But the real tell on the key was with the work that I did on United to get comfortable. And again, Mesa is high risk. Don't get me wrong. I think they've worked incredibly well to support Mesa, United has. And so I think they get to the other side, but it may not. But I do still own some of the stock. But because I did all the work on United as part of my Mesa work, I was able to synthesize the changing wins in the industry . And then you layer on top of that the balance sheet and I was like “These guys aren't going to make it unlikely. I don't short stocks. I occasionally buy a put – a couple of puts here, small money, but I'm not a short seller. And so unfortunately it looks like a lot of retail people got hurt here and it's too bad. And look, Dave is a real entrepreneurial guy, but he has no business giving stock advice. So it's too bad. RS : Are there times with Second Wind Capital with your subscribers over there that they're pushing to short stocks or that they want to short stocks or that you’re – that they're pushing against advice? Do you run into that at all? C&CI : I just don't short stocks. I will occasionally buy some puts. I got some puts on CAVA. I had some puts on one or two other things, but it's really not what I do. I'm not a short seller. I hate how short selling is done. I'll give Hindenburg credit. He has done some very good work. He's been right three out of four times. Outside of Hindenburg - and then the guy who actually ironically shut down his fund, I can't think of it, channels. I just think it's an incredibly difficult business. I get that long short hedge funds have to do it to be market neutral. I get the pod shops that are five, six times levered have to do it. I just – I'm not into shorting. The math doesn't work for me and I hate thinking like a short. Look if you want to be right because you have a brilliant thesis and it's part of a long short portfolio, that's fine. But I hate the hit reports of a Zeta, right? It's just a hit report. You did a bunch of hyenas, they all team out, they all coordinate. They all get short ahead of the report. The report comes out, they put more pressure on it. People retail, get whipsawed. I had people in my group saying, “You're crazy, why you’re buying this? And I said, “Listen, I don't care what these people think.” If it was Hindenburg, I'd have to really think twice because they've had some great calls. But I've never heard of [indiscernible] (45:01). I don't really care who the hell they are. The arguments didn't really make any sense to me. I mean we'll see how it plays out. But I think unless you're a highly sophisticated family office hedge fund or very wealthy individual maybe running a long short book makes fund sense, I don't think it makes sense for the average person, and it's a dirty hedge for a small-cap portfolio. Like if you're long 10 or 12 idiosyncratic names with different industries, different catalysts, different risk parameters, shorting the S&P is so stupid. Shorting the Russell is stupid. The median market cap of the Russell is like a billion dollars. So if you own companies that have $50 million, $100 million, $200 million, $300 million market caps, it's not a good hedge. You get $2 billion, $3 billion companies in the Russell 2000, right? The NASDAQ, you can't short the NASDAQ against a small-cap book. It doesn't make any sense. So I don’t – you always hear about someone gets a great short call, right, they had puts or they did this, they look like a hero, it garners all this media attention. But in the media, it's a place where we hear about winners, we don't hear about the strikeouts, we don't hear about the losers and very few people actually boast their performance. It's again, it's a boastful, belligerent at times, a bar room wild west atmosphere where everyone's just banging their chest about how they're so wonderful and how they've never missed a – they've never bought a stock that went down and never made a mistake. It's just kind of comical, unfortunately. RS : Well, thank you for another great conversation for listeners interested in more. There's Courage & Conviction Investing, the profile on the free side of Seeking Alpha. And there's Second Wind Capital , your investing group that investors can find more personal and detailed attention. Anything else you want to leave investors, listeners with before the end of this conversation. And again, really appreciate it. C&CI : Thanks, Rena. I would just say where I'm trying to evolve, if anyone's considering the service, I'm trying to get away. I would do a lot of tactical and I'd have a long book and I'd run it in parallel. I'm trying to get back to the more of the six-month to 12-month type of ideas where you can make some good money on the tactical side, especially around earnings season, you know the companies and you synthesize them well, but it just takes an incredible amount of bandwidth. And so I've been blessed, I'm working with this guy that's worth like, I don't know, let's just say, well in excess of nine figures, he's brilliant. I've met him through Seeking Alpha, so I'm grateful for that. And I'm learning a lot from him, but I'm still running the group and have three kids and my wife's got a huge job. And so I'm drinking from a fire hose. But what he's trying to get me to think about is like, let's focus on ideas where you have really high conviction, where we can put $5 million in an idea. It's fun to bet here or there and it's fun if it works. But you're spending all this bandwidth and all this energy and all these ideas and even if you're hit for 70%, you're going to make money. But the serious, serious money is getting a couple of ideas right and making them multi-baggers and that's how you compound. So I'm kind of really getting away from the tactical stuff. I'll still do it. So if anyone's considering it, I don't want to misrepresent it. It's more of trying to find the BuzzFeeds the Cineverses, the Arq ( ARQ ), which I've owned for years. Those type of bets, I'll probably sprinkle in a few tactical things. But I just don't have the bandwidth to try to come up with a new winning idea every day. And I just don't think it's something that can scale and you can consistently compound that formula. Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.genie emoji 。

The Federal Government has commenced the construction of a smart divisional police headquarters and six residential quarters for rank-and-file officers in Mpape, a community in the Bwari Area Council of Abuja. The initiative is part of ongoing reforms aimed at transforming policing in Nigeria through the integration of modern technology and fostering inclusivity. The Minister of Police Affairs, Ibrahim Gaidam, represented by the Acting Permanent Secretary of the Ministry, Yusuf Abubakar Argungu, performed the groundbreaking ceremony for the project. In a statement on Sunday, Bolaji Kazeem, Deputy Director of Information and Public Relations for the Ministry, said the project seeks to address security challenges in Mpape and its surrounding areas, providing a safer environment for residents and businesses. “The presence of this divisional headquarters of the police in this location will protect citizens commuting daily for their activities from the dangers of kidnapping, one-chance operations, and robbery, as well as other related crimes affecting people in the city,” Gaidam said. Related News FG, firm plan 100,000 CNG vehicles conversion Nigeria repays $1.22bn to IMF in nine months – Report FG supports Gombe farmers with subsidised inputs The minister reaffirmed the Federal Government’s commitment to transforming the Nigeria Police Force into a modern, technology-driven institution capable of intelligence-led and community-based operations. “The Federal Government is committed to the emergence of a world-class police force that is inclusive, intelligence-led, technology-driven, and community-based,” the statement read. The District Head of Mpape, Alhaji Adamu Diga, commended the Ministry, the Nigeria Police Trust Fund, and the Nigeria Police Force for elevating the existing Mpape Police Post to a Divisional Headquarters. He noted that the development would enhance efficiency and service delivery for residents of the district. The project signifies a major step in bolstering security and modernising policing infrastructure in the Federal Capital Territory, the release noted.Syria latest: Syrians celebrate in the streets as Russian media says Assad has arrived in MoscowBoth Oklahoma and Providence are hoping they'll have key pieces back in place when the two undefeated teams square off in the first round of the Battle 4 Atlantis on Wednesday in Paradise Island, Bahamas. The Friars (5-0) are expected to have Bryce Hopkins available, according to a report from Field of 68. Hopkins was averaging 15.5 points and 8.6 rebounds last season before suffering a torn anterior cruciate ligament Jan. 3. He returned to full-go practices last week, and Tuesday, Providence coach Kim English said Hopkins would be a "game-time decision" against the Sooners. "It's been a process," English said. "We're not rushing it." But English praised Hopkins' progress since the Friars' last game, Nov. 19, when Hopkins went through pregame warmups. "I thought he looked better than I remembered," English said. "He's been in our system for the past year. His patience, his understanding, his versatility on offense and defense ... it's been great to see him in practice." The Sooners (4-0) are hopeful that they'll get Brycen Goodine back. Goodine played for the Friars for two seasons from 2020-22 before transferring to Fairfield for two seasons and then to Oklahoma this offseason. Goodine suffered an ankle injury in the Sooners' opener Nov. 4 and has not played since. "He's a really tough kid and trying to push through it," Oklahoma coach Porter Moser said. "It will truly be one of those game-time decisions. He hasn't gone a full practice yet, just been pieces of practices." Playing with Goodine and Jadon Jones, expected to be two of the Sooners' top outside shooters, Moser said he's learned plenty about his team's offense. "When you're down those shooters, it's really a great weapon to know that a lot of other guys can knock down the open shot," Moser said. "It's been a huge takeaway." The Sooners have been led by Jalon Moore, who is averaging 18.8 points per game, and freshman Jeremiah Fears, who is averaging 15.5. Providence has been led by senior guard Bensley Joseph, who is averaging 11.8 points and 4.0 assists per game. Oklahoma has not played a game closer than 16 points yet this season, with an average margin of victory of 24 points. Providence has won its five games by an average of nearly 17 points per game. The teams will square off against either Davidson or No. 24 Arizona in the second round Thursday, with the winners playing each other in one semifinal while the losers play in a consolation semifinal. --Field Level Media

By ALANNA DURKIN RICHER WASHINGTON (AP) — One year after the Jan. 6, 2021 , U.S. Capitol attack, Attorney General Merrick Garland said the Justice Department was committed to holding accountable all perpetrators “at any level” for “the assault on our democracy.” That bold declaration won’t apply to at least one person: Donald Trump. Special counsel Jack Smith’s move on Monday to abandon the federal election interference case against Trump means jurors will likely never decide whether the president-elect is criminally responsible for his attempts to cling to power after losing the 2020 campaign. The decision to walk away from the election charges and the separate classified documents case against Trump marks an abrupt end of the Justice Department’s unprecedented legal effort that once threatened his liberty but appears only to have galvanized his supporters. The abandonment of the cases accusing Trump of endangering American democracy and national security does away with the most serious legal threats he was facing as he returns to the White House. It was the culmination of a monthslong defense effort to delay the proceedings at every step and use the criminal allegations to Trump’s political advantage, putting the final word in the hands of voters instead of jurors. “We always knew that the rich and powerful had an advantage, but I don’t think we would have ever believed that somebody could walk away from everything,” said Stephen Saltzburg, a George Washington University law professor and former Justice Department official. “If there ever was a Teflon defendant, that’s Donald Trump.” While prosecutors left the door open to the possibility that federal charges could be re-filed against Trump after he leaves office, that seems unlikely. Meanwhile, Trump’s presidential victory has thrown into question the future of the two state criminal cases against him in New York and Georgia. Trump was supposed to be sentenced on Tuesday after his conviction on 34 felony counts in his New York hush money case , but it’s possible the sentencing could be delayed until after Trump leaves office, and the defense is pushing to dismiss the case altogether. Smith’s team stressed that their decision to abandon the federal cases was not a reflection of the merit of the charges, but an acknowledgement that they could not move forward under longstanding Justice Department policy that says sitting presidents cannot face criminal prosecution. Trump’s presidential victory set “at odds two fundamental and compelling national interests: On the one hand, the Constitution’s requirement that the President must not be unduly encumbered in fulfilling his weighty responsibilities . . . and on the other hand, the Nation’s commitment to the rule of law,” prosecutors wrote in court papers. The move just weeks after Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris underscores the immense personal stake Trump had in the campaign in which he turned his legal woes into a political rallying cry. Trump accused prosecutors of bringing the charges in a bid to keep him out of the White House, and he promised revenge on his perceived enemies if he won a second term. “If Donald J. Trump had lost an election, he may very well have spent the rest of his life in prison,” Vice President-elect JD Vance, wrote in a social media post on Monday. “These prosecutions were always political. Now it’s time to ensure what happened to President Trump never happens in this country again.” After the Jan. 6 attack by Trump supporters that left more than 100 police officers injured, Republican leader Mitch McConnell and several other Republicans who voted to acquit Trump during his Senate impeachment trial said it was up to the justice system to hold Trump accountable. The Jan. 6 case brought last year in Washington alleged an increasingly desperate criminal conspiracy to subvert the will of voters after Trump’s 2020 loss, accusing Trump of using the angry mob of supporters that attacked the Capitol as “a tool” in his campaign to pressure then-Vice President Mike Pence and obstruct the certification of Democrat Joe Biden’s victory. Hundreds of Jan. 6 rioters — many of whom have said they felt called to Washington by Trump — have pleaded guilty or been convicted by juries of federal charges at the same courthouse where Trump was supposed to stand trial last year. As the trial date neared, officials at the courthouse that sits within view of the Capitol were busy making plans for the crush of reporters expected to cover the historic case. But Trump’s argument that he enjoyed absolute immunity from prosecution quickly tied up the case in appeals all the way up to the Supreme Court. The high court ruled in July that former presidents have broad immunity from prosecution , and sent the case back to the trial court to decide which allegations could move forward. But the case was dismissed before the trial court could get a chance to do so. Related Articles National Politics | After delay, Trump signs agreement with Biden White House to begin formal transition handoff National Politics | Rudy Giuliani in a courtroom outburst accuses judge in assets case of being unfair, drawing a rebuke National Politics | Surveillance tech advances by Biden could aid in Trump’s promised crackdown on immigration National Politics | Expecting challenges, blue states vow to create ‘firewall’ of abortion protections National Politics | Washington power has shifted. Here’s how the ACA may shift, too The other indictment brought in Florida accused Trump of improperly storing at his Mar-a-Lago estate sensitive documents on nuclear capabilities, enlisting aides and lawyers to help him hide records demanded by investigators and cavalierly showing off a Pentagon “plan of attack” and classified map. But U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the case in July on grounds that Smith was illegally appointed . Smith appealed to the Atlanta-based 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, but abandoned that appeal on Monday. Smith’s team said it would continue its fight in the appeals court to revive charges against Trump’s two co-defendants because “no principle of temporary immunity applies to them.” In New York, jurors spent weeks last spring hearing evidence in a state case alleging a Trump scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election through a hush money payment to a porn actor who said the two had sex. New York prosecutors recently expressed openness to delaying sentencing until after Trump’s second term, while Trump’s lawyers are fighting to have the conviction dismissed altogether. In Georgia, a trial while Trump is in office seems unlikely in a state case charging him and more than a dozen others with conspiring to overturn his 2020 election loss in the state. The case has been on hold since an appeals court agreed to review whether to remove Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis over her romantic relationship with the special prosecutor she had hired to lead the case. Associated Press reporter Lisa Mascaro in Washington contributed.Runner's World: Top RBs take flight when Ravens entertain Eagles

President-elect Donald Trump has surrounded himself with Silicon Valley entrepreneurs — including Elon Musk, Marc Andreessen, and David Sacks — who are now advising him on technology and other issues. When it comes to AI, this crew of technologists is fairly aligned on the need for rapid development and adoption of AI throughout the U.S. However, there’s one AI safety issue this group brings up quite a bit: the threat of AI “censorship” from Big Tech. Trump’s Silicon Valley advisers could make the responses of AI chatbots a new battleground for conservatives to fight their ongoing culture war with tech companies. AI censorship is a term used to describe how tech companies put their thumb on the scale with their AI chatbots’ answers in order to conform to certain politics, or push their own. Others might call it content moderation, which often refers to the same thing but has a very different connotation. Much like social media and search algorithms, getting AI answers right for live news events and controversial subjects is a constantly moving target. For the last decade, conservatives have repeatedly criticized Big Tech for caving to government pressures and censoring their social media platforms and services. However, some tech executives have begun to moderate their positions in public. For example, ahead of the 2024 election, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg apologized to Congress for bending to the Biden administration’s pressure to aggressively moderate content related to COVID-19. Shortly after, the Meta CEO said he’d made a “20-year political mistake” by taking too much responsibility for problems that were out of his company’s control — and said he wouldn’t be making those mistakes again . But according to Trump’s tech advisers, AI chatbots represent an even greater threat to free speech, and potentially a more powerful way to effect control over speech. Instead of skewing a search or feed algorithm toward a desired outcome, such as downranking vaccine disinformation, tech companies can now just give you a single, clear answer that doesn’t include it. In recent months, Musk, Andreessen, and Sacks have spoken out against AI censorship in podcasts, interviews, and social media posts. While we don’t know how exactly they’re advising Trump, their publicly stated beliefs could reveal the conversations they’re having behind closed doors in Washington, D.C., and Mar-a-Lago. “This is my belief, and what I’ve been trying to tell people in Washington, which is if you thought social media censorship was bad, [AI] has the potential to be a thousand times worse,” said a16z co-founder Marc Andreessen in a recent interview with Joe Rogan. “If you wanted to create the ultimate dystopian world, you’d have a world where everything is controlled by an AI that’s been programmed to lie,” said Andreessen in another recent interview with Bari Weiss . Andreessen also disclosed to Weiss that he has spent roughly half his time with Trump’s team since the election happened, offering advice on technology and business. “[Andreessen] explained the dystopian path we were on with AI,” said former PayPal COO and Craft Ventures co-founder, David Sacks, in a recent post on X shortly after he was appointed to be Trump’s AI and crypto czar. “But the timeline split, and we’re on a different path now.” On All In — the popular podcast Sacks hosts alongside other influential venture capitalists — Trump’s new AI adviser has repeatedly criticized Google and OpenAI for, as the show’s hosts describe it, forcing AI chatbots to be politically correct. “One of the concerns about ChatGPT early on was that it was programmed to be woke, and that it wasn’t giving people truthful answers about a lot of things. The censorship was being built into the answers,” said Sacks on an episode of All In from November 2023 . Despite Sacks’ claims, even Elon Musk admits xAI’s chatbot is often more politically correct than he’d like. It’s not because Grok was “programmed to be woke,” but more likely a reality of training AI on the open internet. That said, Sacks is making it more clear every day that “AI truthfulness” is something he’s focused on. Is there a way to score AI models based on how truthful they are? Let’s call it the Galileo Index. Suggestions welcome. https://t.co/fJzwOH3JJa “That’s how you get Black George Washington at Google” The most cited case of AI censorship was when Google Gemini’s AI image generator generated multiracial images for queries such as “U.S. founding fathers” and “German soldiers in WWII,” which were obviously inaccurate. But there are other examples of companies influencing specific results. Most recently, users found out that ChatGPT just won’t answer questions about certain names , and OpenAI admitted that at least one of those names triggered internal privacy tools. At another point, Google’s and Microsoft’s AI chatbots refused to say who won the 2020 U.S. election . During the 2024 election, almost every AI system refused to answer questions about election results, except for Perplexity and Grok . For some of these examples, the tech companies argued they were making a safe and responsible choice for their users. In some cases, that may be true — Grok hallucinated about the outcome of the 2024 election before votes had even been counted . But the Gemini incident stuck out; it caused Google to turn off Gemini’s ability to generate images of people — something the free version of Gemini still cannot do. Google referred to that incident as a mistake and apologized for “missing the mark.” Andreessen and Sacks don’t see it this way. Both venture capitalists have said that Google didn’t miss the mark at all, but rather, hit it a little too obviously. They considered it a pivotal mask-off moment for Google. “The people running Google AI are smuggling in their preferences and their biases, and those biases are extremely liberal,” said Sacks on an episode of All In from February 2024, responding to the Gemini incident. “Do I think they’re going to get rid of the bias? No, they’re going to make it more subtle. That is what I think is disturbing about it.” “It’s 100% intentional; that’s how you get Black George Washington at Google,” said Andreessen in the recent interview with Weiss , rehashing the Gemini incident. “This goes directly to Elon’s argument, which is that at the core of this, you have to train the AI to lie [i.e., to produce answers like Gemini’s].” As Andreessen mentions, Elon Musk has been outspoken against “woke AI chatbots.” Musk originally created his well-funded AI startup, xAI, in 2023 to oppose OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which the billionaire said at the time was infected with the “woke mind virus.” He ultimately created Grok, an AI chatbot with notably fewer safeguards than other leading chatbots. “I’m going to start something which you call TruthGPT or a maximum truth-seeking AI that tries to understand the nature of the universe,” said Musk in an interview with Fox from 2023. When Musk launched Grok, Sacks applauded the effort: “Having something like Grok around will — at a minimum — keep OpenAI honest and keep ChatGPT honest,” said Trump’s AI czar in an All In episode from November 2023 . Now, Musk is doing more than just keeping ChatGPT honest. He has raised more than $12 billion to fund xAI and compete with OpenAI. He’s also suing Sam Altman’s startup and Microsoft, potentially halting OpenAI’s for-profit transition. Musk’s influence on conservative government officials has already shown to carry weight in other areas. Texas attorney general Ken Paxton is investigating a group of advertisers that allegedly boycotted Elon Musk’s X. Musk previously sued the same advertising group, and since then, some of the companies have resumed advertising on his platform. It’s not clear what Trump and other Republicans could do if they actually wanted to investigate OpenAI or Google for AI censorship. It could be investigations by expert agencies, legal challenges, or perhaps just a cultural issue that Trump can press on for the next four years. Regardless of the path forward, Trump’s Silicon Valley advisers are not mincing words on this issue today. “Elon, with the Twitter files, did a privatized version of what now needs to happen broadly,” said Andreessen to Weiss , referring to Musk’s allegations of censorship at Twitter . “We, the American population, need to find out what’s been happening all this time, specifically about this intertwining of government pressure with censorship ... There needs to be consequences.”

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He is not yet in power but President-elect Donald Trump rattled much of the world with an off-hours warning of stiff tariffs on close allies and China -- a loud hint that Trump-style government by social media post is coming back. With word of these levies against goods imported from Mexico, Canada and China, Trump sent auto industry stocks plummeting, raised fears for global supply chains and unnerved the world's major economies. For Washington-watchers with memories of the Republican's first term, the impromptu policy volley on Monday evening foreshadowed a second term of startling announcements of all manner, fired off at all hours of the day from his smartphone. "Donald Trump is never going to change much of anything," said Larry Sabato, a leading US political scientist and director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "You can expect in the second term pretty much what he showed us about himself and his methods in the first term. Social media announcements of policy, hirings and firings will continue." The first of Trump's tariff announcements -- a 25 percent levy on everything coming in from Mexico and Canada -- came amid an angry rebuke of lax border security at 6:45 pm on Truth Social, Trump's own platform. The United States is bound by agreements on the movement of goods and services brokered by Trump in a free trade treaty with both nations during his first term. But Trump warned that the new levy would "remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country" -- sowing panic from Ottawa to Mexico City. Seconds later, another message from the incoming commander-in-chief turned the focus on Chinese imports, which he said would be hit with "an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs." The consequences were immediate. Almost every major US automaker operates plants in Mexico, and shares in General Motors and Stellantis -- which produce pickup trucks in America's southern neighbor -- plummeted. Canada, China and Mexico protested, while Germany called on its European partners to prepare for Trump to impose hefty tariffs on their exports and stick together to combat such measures. The tumult recalls Trump's first term, when journalists, business leaders and politicians at home and abroad would scan their phones for the latest pronouncements, often long after they had left the office or over breakfast. During his first four years in the Oval Office, the tweet -- in those days his newsy posts were almost exclusively limited to Twitter, now known as X -- became the quasi-official gazette for administration policy. The public learned of the president-elect's 2020 Covid-19 diagnosis via an early-hours post, and when Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Qasem Soleimani was assassinated on Trump's order, the Republican confirmed the kill by tweeting a US flag. The public and media learned of numerous other decisions big and small by the same source, from the introduction of customs duties to the dismissal of cabinet secretaries. It is not a communication method that has been favored by any previous US administration and runs counter to the policies and practices of most governments around the world. Throughout his third White House campaign, and with every twist and turn in his various entanglements with the justice system, Trump has poured his heart out on Truth Social, an app he turned to during his 20-month ban from Twitter. In recent days, the mercurial Republican has even named his attorney general secretaries of justice and health via announcements on the network. "He sees social media as a tool to shape and direct the national conversation and will do so again," said political scientist Julian Zelizer, a Princeton University professor. cjc/ft/dw/bjt2025 MG ZS review

TORONTO -- Canadian officials on Tuesday blasted President-elect Donald's Trump's threat to impose sweeping tariffs , as the leader of the country's most populous province called Trump's comparison of Canada to Mexico “the most insulting thing I’ve ever heard.” Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on products from Canada, Mexico and China as soon as he takes office in January as part of efforts to crack down on illegal immigration and drugs. He said he would impose a 25% tax on all products entering the U.S. from Canada and Mexico as one of his first executive orders. “To compare us to Mexico is the most insulting thing I’ve ever heard from our friends and closest allies, the United States of America," Ontario Premier Doug Ford said. “I found his comments unfair. I found them insulting. It’s like a family member stabbing you right in the heart." Ford said Canada will have no choice but to retaliate. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will convene an emergency meeting with provincial leaders on Wednesday. The Canadian dollar weakened sharply in foreign exchange markets. Trudeau said he spoke with Trump after his threat of tariffs. “We talked about the intense and effective connections between our countries that flow back and forth. We talked about some of the challenges that we can work on together. It was a good call,” Trudeau said. Trump made the threat Monday while railing against an influx of illegal migrants, even though apprehensions at the southern U.S. border have been near four-year lows. Apprehension numbers at the Canadian border pale in comparison. “We shouldn’t confuse the Mexican border with the Canadian border,” Canadian Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne said. The U.S. Border Patrol made 56,530 arrests at the Mexican border in October — and 23,721 arrests at the Canadian one between October 2023 and September 2024. "It’s the equivalent to a significant weekend at the Mexico border,” Canadian Immigration Minister Marc Miller said, adding that Canada is considering a number of border measures including additional resources. Quebec Premier François Legault acknowledged that the issue along the Mexican border is far worse but called Trump's concerns legitimate, citing a recent increase in illegal immigrants entering the U.S. from Canada. “A 25% tariff would mean tens of thousands of jobs lost,” Legault said. “We cannot start a war. We have to do everything we can to not have these tariffs." Canada is one of the most trade-dependent countries in the world, and 77% of Canada’s exports go to the U.S. Nearly $3.6 billion Canadian (US$2.7 billion) worth of goods and services cross the border each day. About 60% of U.S. crude oil imports are from Canada, and 85% of U.S. electricity imports are from Canada. Canada is also the largest foreign supplier of steel, aluminum and uranium to the U.S. and has 34 critical minerals and metals that the Pentagon is investing in for national security. “The fact is, we need them and they also need us,” Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said. “Canada is the largest market for the U.S in the world, larger than China, Japan, the U.K. and France combined. It is also the case that the things we sell to the United States are the things they really need." When Trump imposed higher tariffs during his first term, countries responded with retaliatory tariffs. Canada announced billions of dollars in new duties in 2018 in response to new U.S. taxes on Canadian steel and aluminum. Many of the U.S. products were chosen for their political rather than economic impact. For example, Canada imports $3 million worth of yogurt from the U.S. annually and most comes from one plant in Wisconsin, home state of then-House Speaker Paul Ryan. That product was hit with a 10% duty. Now, again, Canadians are particularly worried about auto tariffs. The North American auto industry is highly integrated, and parts made in Canada often go to cars manufactured in the U.S. and sold back to Canadians. “To try and undo it with a tariff would be like trying to separate the yolks from the whites in a omelet. You cannot,” said Flavio Volpe, president of Canada's Automotive Parts Manufacturers Association. “You cannot hurt Canadian automotive without immediately hurting American automotive." The tariffs would also throw into doubt the reliability of the 2020 trade deal brokered in large part by Trump with Canada and Mexico that replaced NAFTA. It is up for review in 2026.Amazon’s latest and greatest tablet, the Fire Max 11 , is currently available at its lowest price ever as part of the ongoing Holiday Deals on Amazon. Priced at just $139 for the 64GB model, down from its original $229 , this offer matches the record-low price seen during Black Friday. With a substantial 39% discount , this deal is your best chance to acquire a high-performance tablet at a fraction of its usual cost. See offer The Fire Max 11 stands out as a versatile all-in-one device and it is designed to cater to a wide range of digital needs. Its standout feature is the vivid 11-inch display which boasts a resolution of 2000 x 1200 pixels and a pixel density of 213 PPI. This screen delivers crisp and clear visuals whether you’re streaming your favorite shows, immersing yourself in e-books or engaging in graphically demanding games. The tablet’s display quality rivals that of more expensive competitors, including some iPad models. Great Screen, Powerful Device Under the hood, the Fire Max 11 packs a punch with its MediaTek octa-core processor clocked at 2.2GHz. This powerful chip is coupled with 4GB of RAM and ensures smooth multitasking and responsive performance across various applications. The Amazon tablet comes with 64GB of internal storage (a version with 128GB is also on sale at Amazon) which can be expanded up to 1TB via a microSD card. In terms of connectivity, the Fire Max 11 supports Wi-Fi 6 for faster and more stable internet connections. One of the most impressive features of the Fire Max 11 is its battery life: the tablet can last up to 14 hours on a single charge and outperforms many competitors in its price range and even some premium tablets. This extended battery life makes the Fire Max 11 an ideal companion for long trips, work days or extended entertainment sessions. The tablet also supports fast charging. Additionally, the Fire Max 11 offers versatility with its optional stylus and keyboard accessories (sold separatly). These add-ons transform the tablet into a productivity powerhouse so that you can take handwritten notes, sketch, or type comfortably. The Fire Max 11 doesn’t skimp on other features either: It boasts dual 8-megapixel cameras (front and rear) capable of 1080p video recording which makes it suitable for video calls and basic photography. The tablet runs on Fire OS 8 which is Amazon’s custom Android-based operating system and which provides access to a wide range of apps through the Amazon Appstore. With the holiday season in full swing, this deal presents a great opportunity to gift yourself or a loved one a capable tactile tablet without straining your budget. This offer is part of Amazon’s Holiday Deals and at this record-low price, stock is likely to deplete quickly. See at Amazon

NEW YORK (AP) — A number of President-elect Donald Trump 's most prominent Cabinet picks and appointees have been targeted by bomb threats and “swatting attacks," Trump's transition team said Wednesday. The FBI said it was investigating. “Last night and this morning, several of President Trump’s Cabinet nominees and Administration appointees were targeted in violent, unAmerican threats to their lives and those who live with them," Trump transition spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. She said the attacks ranged from bomb threats to swatting, in which attackers initiate an emergency law enforcement response against a target victim under false pretenses. The tactic has become a popular one in recent years. Leavitt said law enforcement and other authorities acted quickly to ensure the safety of those who were targeted and Trump and his transition team are grateful. Among those targeted were New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, Trump’s pick to serve as the next ambassador to the United Nations ; Matt Gaetz, Trump’s initial pick to serve as attorney general ; and former New York congressman Lee Zeldin, who has been tapped to lead the Environmental Protection Agency. Law enforcement officials are also looking into whether Susie Wiles, Trump’s incoming chief of staff, and Pam Bondi, the former Florida attorney general whom Trump has chosen as Gaetz’s replacement, and other incoming administration officials were also victims — as well as how each was targeted, according to a law enforcement official who spoke on condition of anonymity as the investigation continues. Wiles and Bondi did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The FBI said in a statement that it was “aware of numerous bomb threats and swatting incidents targeting incoming administration nominees and appointees" and was investigating with its law enforcement partners. The FBI added: "We take all potential threats seriously, and as always, encourage members of the public to immediately report anything they consider suspicious to law enforcement.” White House spokesperson Saloni Sharma said President Joe Biden had been briefed and the White House is in touch with federal law enforcement and Trump's transition team. Biden “continues to monitor the situation closely," Sharma said, adding the president and his administration “condemn threats of political violence.” Stefanik's office said that, on Wednesday morning, she, her husband, and their 3-year-old son were driving home from Washington for Thanksgiving when they were informed of a bomb threat to their residence in Saratoga County. Her office said “New York State, County law enforcement, and U.S. Capitol Police responded immediately with the highest levels of professionalism.” The New York State Police said a team was dispatched to sweep Stefanik’s home on Wednesday morning in response to the bomb threat but did not locate any explosive devices. The agency directed further questions to the FBI. Zeldin said in a social media post that he and his family had been threatened. “A pipe bomb threat targeting me and my family at our home today was sent in with a pro-Palestinian themed message,” he wrote on X . “My family and I were not home at the time and are safe. We are working with law enforcement to learn more as this situation develops.” Police in Suffolk County, Long Island, said emergency officers responded to a bomb threat Wednesday morning at an address listed in public records as Zeldin’s home and were checking the property. In Florida, the Okaloosa County sheriff’s office said on Facebook that it “received notification of a bomb threat referencing former Congressman Matt Gaetz’s supposed mailbox at a home in the Niceville area" around 9 a.m. Wednesday. While a family member resides at the address, the office said, Gaetz “is NOT a resident.” No threatening devices were found. Gaetz was Trump’s initial pick to serve as attorney general, but he withdrew from consideration after allegations that he paid women for sex and slept with underage women. Gaetz has vehemently denied any wrongdoing and said last year that a Justice Department investigation into sex trafficking allegations involving underage girls had ended with no federal charges against him. The threats follow a political campaign marked by disturbing and unprecedented violence. In July, a gunman opened fire at a Trump rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, grazing the then-candidate in the ear with a bullet and killing one of his supporters. The Secret Service later thwarted a subsequent assassination attempt at Trump's West Palm Beach, Florida, golf course when an agent spotted the barrel of a gun poking through a perimeter fence while Trump was golfing. Trump was also the subject of an Iranian murder-for-hire plot , with a man saying he had been tasked with planning the assassination of the Republican president-elect. Also this week, authorities arrested a man they say posted videos on social media threatening to kill Trump, according to court documents. In one video posted on Nov. 13, Manuel Tamayo-Torres threatened to shoot the former president while holding what appeared to be an AR-15 style rifle, authorities said Among the other videos he posted was one from an arena in Glendale, Arizona on Aug. 23, the same day Trump held a campaign rally there, according to court papers. An attorney for Tamayo-Torres did not immediately respond to a request for comment Wednesday. Public figures across the political spectrum have been targeted in recent years by hoax bomb threats and false reports of shootings at their homes. About a year ago the FBI responded to an uptick in such incidents at the homes of public officials, state capitols and courthouses across the country around the holidays. Many were locked down and evacuated in early January after receiving bomb threats. No explosives were found and no one was hurt. Some of those targeted last year were Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu and Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost. In Wu’s case, a male caller told police he had shot his own wife and tied another man up. When police and EMT responders arrived at the address given by the caller, they quickly realized it was the Boston mayor’s home. Wu, a Democrat, has also been targeted by many swatting calls since she took office in 2021. The judges overseeing the civil fraud case against Trump in New York and the criminal election interference case against him in Washington were both targeted earlier this year. Justice Department special counsel Jack Smith, who recently abandoned the two criminal cases he brought against Trump, was also the subject of a fake emergency call on Christmas Day last year. Earlier this year, schools, government buildings and the homes of city officials in Springfield, Ohio, received a string of hoax bomb threats after Trump falsely accused members of Springfield’s Haitian community of abducting and eating cats and dogs. And in 2022, a slew of historically Black colleges and universities nationwide were targeted with dozens of bomb threats, with the vast majority arriving during the celebration of Black History Month. The U.S. Capitol Police said in a statement Wednesday that anytime a member of Congress is the victim of a swatting' incident, “we work closely with our local and federal law enforcement partners.” The force declined to provide further details, in part to “minimize the risk of copy-cats.” Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson called the threats “dangerous and unhinged.” “This year, there was not just one but TWO assassination attempts on President Trump," he wrote on X . “Now some of his Cabinet nominees and their families are facing bomb threats.” He added: “It is not who we are in America.” ___ Richer reported from Washington. Associated Press writers Colleen Long and Eric Tucker in Washington, Scott Bauer in Madison, Wisconsin, and Anthony Izaguirre in Albany, New York, contributed to this report.

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